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Recession Resistant Commercial Real Estate

October 30, 2020

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COVID-19, politics, and the suburban push

Over the past five years, prior to Covid-19, Census data shows that millennials are increasingly fleeing large cities and moving to suburbs as they marry and have kids. The consensus view is that this movement was primarily driven by the cost of housing and the quality of primary education. In a post-pandemic world, we expect to see that trend accelerate as new residents prioritize suburban growth markets that are more affordable, less tax-intensive and still have a high quality of life attached to them. For these same reasons, jobs are to follow. Large companies are not only thinking through the economics of the opportunity, which is to move a portion of its labor pool out of a gateway market - to a higher value location - where they will have more control of their environment, less worker density, and the ability to better insulate their employees.


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Key points

Secondary growth markets and key demographic metrics driving change

Rebirth of the suburban office

Assessing the impact of work-from-home in a post-Covid environment

Views of commercial real estate under a Biden vs. Trump administration

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